SLB Long or short?

Over the weekend, I wrote that buying energy could be the week's opportunity.
I hence ran a test on SLB, buying an oversold situation.

As you can see below, SLB closed at 87.16. I ran a test on the past 500 days to buy oversold levels and found that SLB would need to be bought lower than 83.69 in order to produce some positive stats.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]27305[/ATTACH]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]27304[/ATTACH]

We can see below that to reach very good returns, we would need to buy 6% below the 5MA, but there is only a 0.2% probability to reach this level. Today.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]27307[/ATTACH]

On the other hand, we can see that shorting bounces look more interesting and certainly more probable trades.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]27306[/ATTACH]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]27308[/ATTACH]

This small analysis shows that it is important to verify that one's opinion is valid and today's most probable trade on SLB is a short trade.