KEX Short

KEX is in a trading range, but shows negative EV

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The problem is that the downtrend is rather new and it is difficult to know whether this pull-back is going to revert back-up or generate a new sell-off.

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We only analyse here a breakdown on volume below 104. If we take 60 days as analysis period, then the returns look good (we have been in a downtrend for the last 60 days)

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If we now use 300 days (most of this period was an uptrend,) we can see that the returns still look OK.

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However, if we increase the number of holding days from 5D to 10D, then even though the 60D work fine, a 300 days period is rather negative.

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This tells us that we should only trade short-term for now. However, the holding period is a false issue, because we do not need to decide today if e hold for 10 days. We can decide after reviewing the results early in the trade: if returns look good, we can analyze the situation and decide to keep the trade or not.