4-26-2014 Comments

I just listened to the Steve Birch interview on IBD TV and thought it was good. I don't know if you need to be a subscriber of IBD to listen but here is the link.

[URL="http://ibdtv.investors.com/ibd-weekly-radio-show/698450-how-to-make-money-in-stocks-radio-show-april-26-2014.aspx"]http://ibdtv.investors.com/ibd-weekly-radio-show/698450-how-to-make-money-in-stocks-radio-show-april-26-2014.aspx[/URL]

A prior show from Thursday or Friday featured Bill O'Neil, also well worth listening to.

Steve is the President of O'Neil Data Systems and a seasoned investor. It is interesting to see how his analysis time frame has lengthened over his investing career. He has moved to longer and longer interval charts including quarterly and annual charts in his stock analysis. This matches my aspirations as I move to longer and longer term analysis. I hide all interval charts less than daily and I only reserve a tiny space on my screen for a daily chart. The weekly chart is what gains the largest real estate and is my focus.

Not much is setting up right now. Perhaps AL, SYNA and TRMB are worth looking at. Much of the energy sector is too extended to consider. When it is difficult to build a watch list it tells me something about the market.

Two forward going scenarios come to mind: we roll over breaking the neckline of a NASDAQ head and shoulders pattern leading to a 15-20 percent correction judging by the dimensions of the pattern or we shoot back up to new high ground as we have at all recent predictions of gloom and doom. The 50-day moving average is the dividing line in my opinion to the two paths. Friday's move down may be tipping toward the low road but it is too soon to tell. The rising NASDAQ Average True Range (%ATR) has been voting for the low road for months.

As Jerry has said, this may be the time for a beach vacation until Mr. Market sorts out. When a growth investor makes money it is because the market wind is at his or her back.

In ancient Naval traditions: May you have trade winds and following seas...