The lump of coal hits Argentina

Sector Model XLU -0.16%

Large Portfolio Date Return Days
ABX 4/11/2013 -30.45% 247
NEM 9/30/2013 -16.11% 75
BCR 10/4/2013 16.45% 71
ED 10/18/2013 -3.24% 57
ISRG 10/21/2013 -3.61% 54
EW 10/28/2013 -20.27% 47
ARLP 11/11/2013 0.67% 33
JOY 11/18/2013 -5.44% 26
OXY 11/27/2013 -6.03% 17
OUTR 12/2/2013 0.47% 12

(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P Annualized 11.54%
Sector Model Annualized 22.74%
Large Portfolio Annualized 27.88%


From: [url]http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com/2013/12/12142013-lump-of-coal-hits-argentina.html[/url]

Rotation: selling OUTR; buying FFIV (again).

A bit of churning while the model goes nowhere. Although technically 0.47% in 12 days is equivalent to an annualized rate of 15.27%, it’s hardly anything to brag about.

Meanwhile, after unloading FFIV a few weeks ago, that stock went down about 1% and stopped.

1% is hardly a buyable dip.

A very unexciting time.

In the news, ABX is closing down an unprofitable Argentinian mine and laying off almost a third of their total workforce (which corresponds to the third I’ve lost in it so far). I’m no expert on how this layoff will affect the stock, but my guess is this may stop the bleeding.

And that’s a sour point to me. I like fundamental investing over technical trading because I usually profit when a business (and employees) succeed together. I want to win when others win. I don’t want to recover when others get laid off just before Christmas.

I hope they can find other work and that their families will be okay.

As far as the broad market is concerned, the sector model’s move to XLU is hardly bullish. And the money-flow into XLU is unusually strong for the model.

Something negative is afoot.

That lump of coal I looked at last week keeps peeking out of its stocking.

Tim