I have completed a back-test of day-trading patterns starting from January 2009.
The day trading patterns work best when the GDX model is either in Overbought or Oversold
[U][B]1. Oversold[/B][/U]
We can distinguish here between light oversold (GDX MF lower than -1% and Higher than -1.75%. As a reminder, the OS level is -1.3%) and strong oversold (GDX MG lower than -1.75%)
I found out that when GDX opens on a down-gap while in either Light OS or strong OS, the average returns for the day are slightly negative after 9:50. Hence, do not buy if there was an opening down gap when in oversold. This down gap means "more selling."
When GDX Opens with a gap-up that is higher than 0.2%, then if by 9:50 the MF since the start of the trading day has been positive, then
- [U] a weak oversold situation[/U] would lead to an average gain from 9:50 to 16:00 of 0.78% (66% win/loss ratio)
- [U] a strong oversold situation[/U] would lead to an average gain from 9:50 to 16:00 of 1.08% (72.7% win/loss ratio)
If by 9:50 the MF is negative, this means that the opening gap does not attract money and it is better not to buy.
[U][B]2. Overbought[/B][/U]
We can distinguish here between light Overbought(GDX MF higher than 1% and lower than 1.25%. As a reminder, the OB level is +1.25%) and strong Overbought(GDX MG higher than +1.25%)
I found out that when GDX opens down while in either Light OB or Strong OB, the average returns for the day are slightly positive after 9:50. Hence, do not short if there was a positive open when in overbought.
When GDX Opens up, then if by 9:50 the MF since the start of the trading day has been negative, then
- [U] a weak oversold situation[/U] would lead to an average short gain from 9:50 to 16:00 of 0.26% (57% win/loss ratio)
- [U] a strong oversold situation[/U] would lead to an average short gain from 9:50 to 16:00 of 1.18% (83% win/loss ratio)
This means that if we are overbought, an opening gap that attracts sellers at 9:50 shown by a negative money flow indicates a good probability that we will move lower for the rest of the day.
If we meet the Day Trading conditions stated above, I will buy a long position at 9:50 and will keep it overnight only is we issue a buy signal.
Pascal