09/20/2012 Mousetrap

Small Portfolio XLF & IAU 19.21%

Position Date Return Days
DECK 6/15/2012 -13.92% 96
CVX 7/5/2012 9.46% 76
RIMM 7/16/2012 -0.55% 65
UEIC 7/30/2012 30.92% 51
QSII 8/6/2012 11.78% 44
SWM 8/23/2012 3.94% 27
FCX 8/27/2012 14.97% 23
DWA 9/4/2012 3.65% 15
CAJ 9/5/2012 10.65% 14
DVN 9/7/2012 4.72% 12

S&P Annualized 6.59%
Small Portfolio Annualized 14.71%
Large Portfolio Annualized 18.32%

From: [url]http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com/2012/09/09202012-premarket-scream-machine.html[/url]
Scheduled rotation: selling CAJ; buying NPK.
The market is wildly overbought right now, so any new position is liable to get hammered in the beginning. DECK had a significant drop off this week after an analyst noted that some of its shoes were on sale 3 months before Christmas.
Merry Christmas to me…
Speaking of Christmas gifts… all of this free money from the central banks is just a new version of the old trade wars they had in the 1930s. If we devalue our currency by 10%, that’s the equivalent of a 10% tariff on every product developed in the context of another currency.
If the Euro is devalued, that deflates the dollar. If the dollar is devalued, that deflates the Euro. If the Yen is devalued, that deflates both the Euro and the dollar.
If every currency is devalued at once, though, no one gets even a temporary reprieve.
The ECRI sees us as already in a recession. Europe clearly has been in recession for a while.
The market may be on a sugar high, but it isn’t pulling the rest of the economy along.
Clearly the best investment right now is a good job – but that’s just as risky as DECK, and with currency devaluations it’s not very much more profitable.
I said the other day, “Enjoy the ride.” This ride, of course, may very well turn into something like that old roller coaster from Six Flags called “The Scream Machine.”
Tim

Incidentally, kudos to Pascal for noting that the shoe industry was about to get slammed -- right before DECK got slammed.