Mousetrap 12/11/2011

Waiting out the apocalypse

Secular Hold IAU & XLF 5.75%
Condition Bear Market Rally
S&P Target 940
Hedge XLU -2.38%

Position Date Return Days Call
SE 6/27/2011 11.57% 167 Hold
CLH 7/6/2011 13.81% 158 Hold
GCI 7/14/2011 -1.98% 150 Hold
CSGS 10/3/2011 20.05% 69 Hold
NLY 10/25/2011 -1.71% 47 Buy
DD 10/27/2011 -6.87% 45 Hold
KBR 10/27/2011 -7.60% 45 Hold
VG 10/27/2011 -27.97% 45 Hold
WHR 11/30/2011 2.54% 11 Hold
TTM 11/30/2011 4.97% 11 Hold

S&P Annualized -12.60%
Mousetrap Annualized 3.60%
Hedged Annualized -3.20%
Secular Annualized 10.83%

No changes. Europe keeps trying to bluff their way through and delaying the inevitable, while America has done nothing meaningful to insulate ourselves.

My own expectations haven’t changed: the rally we’re in now in the 4th quarter, and the crash in the 1st quarter of 2012.

If there’s a way to avoid it, I can’t even guess.

My friend Len is calling to sell this rally, and that’s probably wise. I have some discretionary trades not listed here that I may go ahead and take profits on. The Mousetrap remains unchanged.


Tim