Leaders Index 9-30-14

The market bounced around all today in a fairly trendless session. The major averages closed lower on the day after bouncing between positive and negative territory all day. They all closed at or near their intraday lows and are back below their 50dmas. They have broken below this important moving average, rallied back above it and then fell below again. This is negative action. Volume was higher across the board so there was distribution on all the major averages. There is now a lot of distribution all around, which usually results in lower prices. Leading stocks were lower as well with the leaders index off by 1.12% on much higher and well above average volume. The index closed just below it’s 17dma and remains in the recent consolidation pattern. The rally is on very thin ice and is still likely being held up by the very accommodative policy on the part of the Fed. The market appears to me to be in a topping process. Important market tops are a process that can be spread out over many months. It is possible that a real break will not come until the Fed actually starts to raise interest rates. Right now it is a very difficult environment to make money in. A good degree of caution is a good idea. Jerry