No Changes In Outlooks - April 18, 2012

After filling the 4/9 gap, IWM threatened to hit the robot stop (81.63) with a high of 81.55 before a wave of selling pressure stroke in the last 15 minutes of trading, magnified by a run to the exits by large players as shown by the RT 20 DMF. Yesterday’s average buyer was a loser by the close (80.82) below intraday VWAP (81.07).

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This behavior supports the bearish case scenario and it will remain predominant as long as investors are renewing their selling pressure when approaching the declining 50-day moving average (81.89). A secondary short entry looks attractive from a reward-risk perspective today at the limit of 81.49 with a discretionary stop above the confluence of the 50 dma (81.89) and Monthly pivot (81.96). Daily R2 (82.16) is a good stop suggestion offering enough porosity above the confluence for avoiding whipsaws. All support and resistance clusters are in close symmetry and cannot suggest clear technical bias or, in other words, are neutral here.

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Following the GDX gyrations is becoming tiring as it is stuck in a choppy consolidation that began on April 4th. Objectively, the last few trading days have only offered unconvincing bounces with hesitant Money Flow. Yesterday was striking as MF was a laggard to price during the price recovery that began at 9:41 AM while the RT MF kept plunging until 10:03 AM missing a RT short signal by 0.02%. But MF closed mildly in the green and with renewed positive divergences to price. All in all, boring but still optimist outlook for the GDX robot long position. The porosity for today will be 0.152%. A MF close today below -0.152% would trigger a sell signal at the open tomorrow. We are still missing enough backtests on the RT model to rely on it when it is so close to issuing a series of contradictory signals intraday.

The multi-pivot clusters bias remains strongly tilted in favor of a bullish resolution out of the consolidation. The LT/ST settings see no edges for entering a new position today.
Billy

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