Study of the IBB short idea

In the comment of the day, I wrote about shorting IBB.

We can see that we are just at the 50MA.

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I therefore tested a breakdown on volume below the $290 price, using 1000 days to back-test this strategy and the results are poor.

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The reason s simple: the Breakout Calculator mainly works for trend following.
Here, we are testing a trend break. There were only two such events in the past two years, which led to much pain as the price moved down to the 200MA.

I still suspect that IBB might go there, but the Breakout Calculator does not provide any help to back that opinion...

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