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Update for Friday, February 17th
Here's the cluster weights as of the close on Thursday:
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From a clustering point of view, IWM and it's variants are all supportive of a move upward. We do have a balanced R1/S1 weighting that is uniform for TNA and UWM, and slightly more over head resistance by 1 compared to support for IWM. You can see this favoritism by the values in the "Bal" column all being less than 1.0.
Ditto S&P500 and the DJ30.
NAS, not so much. YOu can see that TQQQ is telling us to jump in, but there is no confirmation on the lower leveraged amounts (QLD, 2x, and QQQ, tracking).
Somewhat of interest is that the zone breadth, which I define as the distance from the closest support weight > 3 to price and the closest resistance weight > 3, again closest to price.
For the R2K, we're right in the middle of the zone, with 1.4% until we start entering resistance and 1.6% until we hit support. I note that we're right between R1 and R2, which is healthy in John Person's view for a bull market.
For the S&P500, the situation is the same -- we're near the middle of the zone, and there is no bias either way.
For the NAS there is overhead resistance at quarterly pivots, so it will be interesting to see how the market deals with this. I note too that TQQQ is above qR2 by 0.8% and has a long distance to mR3, so we'll see if this is at all able to hold water.
The more conservative part of my brain looks at the Risk/Reward (column RR). When these values move to 2-3, they turn puke-green. When they are above 3, they are at the "buy point" You can see that these values for the R2K and SP500 are all below 2, so they are red -- R/R is poor for entry at the present prices. The NAS is showing some large numbers for QQQ and this is a problem I have with a simple R/R calculation -- it is non-linear the smaller the denominator gets (e.g., as you get closer to a lower support the denominator goes to 0, causing the R/R to skyrocket). The converse is true if we get close to a resistance level (R/R --> 0). The "linear" zone is from about 1 to 7 or so, so I have been watching those areas for entry.
Again, all pure mental games here. I'm not actually trading any money on these yet, but simply trying to learn what I'm seeing.
Regards,
pgd
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Late (edit) post:
In the FWIW column, I took a snapshot of the Precious Metals Cluster weight when I received Pascal's RT signal concerning GDX (about an hour after the actual signal). Here's the figure for your review:
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