4-3-12 Morning Comments

The NASDAQ remains at a +7 Exposure Count with 4 days of distribution and under a Power Trend.
Tomorrow (Wednesday) at the close the distribution day of 2/29 should fall out of the count. A distribution day today would theorhetically give us a 5 count and an S3 sell signal (full distribution count minus one). We are only 2% above the 21-day ema, a close 0.2% below this level could give us an S5 (21-day break) sell signal.

Distribution remains high on the NYSE indices. IBD reports 7 on the NYSE Composite. Using the Market School stall definition IBD missed a stall day that ocurred on 3/16/2012 on the $NYA distribution count, it should be 8. They also missed a stall day on the S&P500 on the same day, the S&P500 count is still 5 as the distribution day on 3/6 fell off due to yesterdays S&P climb above 6% above the close of that day. However this level of distribution should always be of some concern. Both the S&P and NYA should drop a distribution day from the count this week due to aging.

In the mean time the S&P500 made a new 52-week intraday and closing high yesterday on below average volume. In my own portfolio the Raymond James BWLD downgrade caused it to close below the 21-day ema. It is on an 8-week hold from the 2-8-2012 breakout. Stocks that move up 20% or more in 3 weeks or less are automatically held for at least 8 weeks. We are in the 8th week now. The 8-week hold rule is designed to get us through rough patches with stocks showing uncommon strength.