Kibitzers' Corner

From Wikipedia: [I] A kibitzer is a non-participant who hangs around a game, offering (often unwanted) advice or commentary. This Yiddish term is used in Contract bridge, Chess, Go, and many other games.
Kibitz is also a term referring to circular commenting. One person comments, then the other person comments. A back-and-forth conversation outside the main issue, where the people having the conversation are not directly participating[/I]

I'm starting this thread for all who might have ideas, feelings (Trev!), confessions etc. that they'd like to share in relation to the robots. If you have specific questions, post them on Billy's thread. Specific suggestions about programming, back-testing, etc., should be posted in Pascal's daily comments. In this thread we can send semi-random signals about the robot and ourselves. Leaders are most welcome-- but please don't feel obliged to respond. Also, I can't be around to monitor the thread all day (I feel responsible for it). So-- while all nearly random robot signals are welcome, please avoid politics and religion.

I'll start: I bought shares of TVIX at 19.28. This is not condoned by the robot. (insert smiley face). But the upside looks huge; that is, it is a "jumping out of the first floor window trade."

[QUOTE=nickola.pazderic;20000]From Wikipedia: [I] A kibitzer is a non-participant who hangs around a game, offering (often unwanted) advice or commentary. This Yiddish term is used in Contract bridge, Chess, Go, and many other games.
Kibitz is also a term referring to circular commenting. One person comments, then the other person comments. A back-and-forth conversation outside the main issue, where the people having the conversation are not directly participating[/I]

I'm starting this thread for all who might have ideas, feelings (Trev!), confessions etc. that they'd like to share in relation to the robots. If you have specific questions, post them on Billy's thread. Specific suggestions about programming, back-testing, etc., should be posted in Pascal's daily comments. In this thread we can send semi-random signals about the robot and ourselves. Leaders are most welcome-- but please don't feel obliged to respond. Also, I can't be around to monitor the thread all day (I feel responsible for it). So-- while all nearly random robot signals are welcome, please avoid politics and religion.

I'll start: I bought shares of TVIX at 19.28. This is not condoned by the robot. (insert smiley face). But the upside looks huge; that is, it is a "jumping out of the first floor window trade."[/QUOTE]

Hi Nickola,

I am finding it rather difficult to reply to your post. I have mixed feelings with an excellent Robot yearly portfolio performance but an extremely poor last 3 months performance and watching GDX take off without me ! :O(

(Feelings are a luxury we cannot allow in the market of course.)

I will focus on my yearly results and be happy :O)

Trev

Trev--

You have my company.

If things keep up like this, I might be outta money. This is one Livermore experience (of many actually) that I don't want to have. In fact, I won't come close to it. I'll sack myself before my spouse does.

I'm no engineer, just a dumb social scientist and musician. I don't hear music in the spheres of the market. I sense instead a global free-for-all pyramid scheme of sorts. I am involved from a stand point of sheer brutal practicality. Practically speaking, I've been brutally shaken.

I'm glum.

[QUOTE=nickola.pazderic;20068]Trev--

You have my company.

If things keep up like this, I might be outta money. This is one Livermore experience (of many actually) that I don't want to have. In fact, I won't come close to it. I'll sack myself before my spouse does.

I'm no engineer, just a dumb social scientist and musician. I don't hear music in the spheres of the market. I sense instead a global free-for-all pyramid scheme of sorts. I am involved from a stand point of sheer brutal practicality. Practically speaking, I've been brutally shaken.

I'm glum.[/QUOTE]

[url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKBRjZdy8WY[/url]

Billy

[URL="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI3m82MZf-Y&feature=related"]And in these simple tones, I hear you, Billy, too. [/URL]

Hi Trev and Nickola,

I started to follow both robots from 1Jul2011 and tried 100% mechanical but occasionally, I reduced the position by following Billy and Pascal's advice. And here's the PL% of my trade results,

IWM : -0.35%(last year)-2.18%(this year up to now) = -2.53%
GDX : -1.17%(last year)+(0%) (this year up to now)

Trev : I shared the same feeling as you, GDX take off without me.

I hope the future will be better with the recent improvement.

Cheers,
Ellis

[QUOTE=mingpan.lam;20071]Hi Trev and Nickola,

I started to follow both robots from 1Jul2011 and tried 100% mechanical but occasionally, I reduced the position by following Billy and Pascal's advice. And here's the PL% of my trade results,

IWM : -0.35%(last year)-2.18%(this year up to now) = -2.53%
GDX : -1.17%(last year)+(0%) (this year up to now)

Trev : I shared the same feeling as you, GDX take off without me.

I hope the future will be better with the recent improvement.

Cheers,
Ellis[/QUOTE]

The main question is why not taking a position in GDX or closing it earlier?
I entered into a second GDX position at arund 54 and closed it at about that price, but kept the initial GDX position as per the robot's instructions.

For me, keeping a long GDX and a short IWM is sound, because it hedges against any sudden market melt down or melt up.



Pascal

Hi Pascal,

During December, we have a couple of lose trades and one of the reason is probably due to the low volume during holiday. I just don't have the confidence. And just after the holiday, I decided not to follow the first GDX signal and I know it was a wrong decision.

Trev : what's the reason for you not following GDX?

Cheers,

Ellis

[QUOTE=manucastle;20067]

:O( (Feelings are a luxury we cannot allow in the market of course.)

Trev[/QUOTE]


Maybe allowing the feelings -- even reveling in the positive ones and wallowing in the negative -- will help us not to act on them (or fail to act because of them).

Neil

[QUOTE=mingpan.lam;20107]Hi Pascal,

During December, we have a couple of lose trades and one of the reason is probably due to the low volume during holiday. I just don't have the confidence. And just after the holiday, I decided not to follow the first GDX signal and I know it was a wrong decision.

Trev : what's the reason for you not following GDX?

Cheers,

Ellis[/QUOTE]

Hi Ellis,

I sold GDX due to Pascal's comments indicating a sell because the RT MF crossed below the signal line on Jan 19th and I did not get a chance again to buy because the signals have been Neutral since then.

Trev

Trev