10/20/2013 Mousetrap

Sector Model XLK 3.20%

Large Portfolio Date Return Days
ABX 4/11/2013 -23.28% 192
TTM 5/6/2013 17.62% 167
VAR 8/2/2013 7.43% 79
QCOM 9/3/2013 3.20% 47
NEM 9/30/2013 -3.79% 20
BCR 10/4/2013 8.52% 16
BAX 10/7/2013 1.52% 13
BDX 10/11/2013 3.61% 9
DECK 10/15/2013 -3.25% 5
ED 10/18/2013 0.19% 2

(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P Annualized 11.49%
Sector Model Annualized 25.05%
Large Portfolio Annualized 30.88%

S&P Total 29.68%
Sector Model Total 70.62%
Large Portfolio Total 90.24%

Sector Model Advantage 13.56%
Large Portfolio Advantage 19.39%

Previous YTD
S&P 6.02% 22.32%
Sector Model 27.01% 34.33%
Large Portfolio 46.63% 29.74%


From: [url]http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com/2013/10/10202013-changing-pace.html[/url]

Rotation: selling VAR; buying ISRG.

This is purely a fundamental exchange. Both of these companies are in the same industry.

In any case, from time to time I’ll expand the reporting to list all the return metrics. Since the launch of the model, the S&P has gained a little under 30%, and the Mousetrap has gained a little over 90%. Basically triple the returns.

Although both the full Mousetrap and the Sector model have undergone some degree of refinement, the Sector model has improved by a greater amount. Part of the strength of the sector model is the fact that it trades toward the close, rather than trying to navigate gaps on the open.

Trading toward the close would improve the performance of the full model by about 5% a year, but it would be impossible for anyone to follow in real time. Kind of a Catch-22. Do I want a blog that averages 35% per year that no one could follow, or one that averages 30% per year that people can.

Right: better a useful 30% return rate than a useless 35%.

And, with that in mind, I am also planning to back off of intra-week trades on the full model, and set trades for weekend readers. The blog is for real schlubs like me who work for a living and don’t have time to sit there and watch all the market ticks and tricks.

The sector model will continue to trade in real time, and the full model will trade once a week. That’s about as easy to follow as possible.

A private fund would trade toward the close, but this isn’t a private fund. It’s just a blog.

Tim