2 Attachment(s)
30 Year T-Bonds - Intermediate term trend change imminent?
I don't think I posted this chart here before, but I created it on February 9, 2011 and it has proved remarkably prescient. It might be partly luck, but I post it here for anyone interested in interest rates.
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Here is the original from February, which contains more history in the monthly:
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Implication for equities? Not sure, as I expect continued decoupling of yields with risk markets, as the US debt rating becomes more and more of an issue. Intermediate term implications for US Treasurys are bearish, however, assuming the cycle continues to hold. Once yields definitively break up through the downward trend channel, that marks the end of the three decade secular bull market in Treasurys (bear market in yields). It could be as soon as the end of 2011. Or, we might see another intermediate term zag downwards into H1 2012.
i think you are right, no doubt
EB--
My sense of humor during these times is a little whacked.
In any case, I have seen reports of[I] negative[/I] interest rates on Zero Hedge. (As one commentor put it: "paying the government to keep their money out of stocks").
I also know I've tried to short treasuries all year with little success.
As an investor, I've gone flat all risk assets. Unfortunately, due to regulations in a state retirement account I manage, I'm still long bonds. I'd rather be flat even bonds, but I must wait a few days before I can return to cash (i.e., a money market-- another riskier asset in light of present liquidity problems-- sigh). As I wait, I am left smoking hopium/ or cheering on the bonds in their parabolic move. Since I still think bond prices must come down, I depend on luck to keep the account positive.
Your charts are excellent, and I am spurred to wonder whether or not Trade Station is a better provider than Thinkorswim.
Nick