3-19-2012 Before the Open
Market Exposure remains fully invested with an exposure count of +5
We are in a Power Trend which allows the count to go to +7. This does not mean exposure above 100% but that a +7 would require additional sell signals to take us out of the market. On Wednesday close if the NASDAQ intraday lows continue trending above the 21-day ema we will see a B5 buy signal (Living above the 21-day).
Current distribution count is +3 but tomorrow close the distribution day on 2/15/2012 should fall out of the 25-day lookback window.
US Tresury Bonds look like a possible 30-year top to me. If so we may begin the long grinding process of money out of bonds and into other assets. This could fuel stocks for some time. Bernanke may have other plans however.
It looks like AAPL could gap up to new highs this morning. One of these days I expect AAPL to go into a climax run. It isn't impossible that we are in the beginning phase of one now.
On Thursday I dropped down to a core position in KORS that was purchased at $27.11 on 1/17/2012. I am hopeful that KORS could breakout out of a high-tight flag but in the meantime I am respecting that KORS has failed the 10-day moving average after riding above that average for more than eight straight weeks. I will buy back sold shares if and when KORS makes another move.
Characteristics of a high-tight flag are a move up of 100% or so in 4 to 8 weeks followed by a 3-5 week tight consolidation and then a subsequent break above the highs of the pattern. These breakouts can run for another 100% or more. KORS seems to jump the gun on every breakout so less than a 3-week consolidation could happen.
