1 Attachment(s)
The Robot and Stationarity: The Best-Kept Secret in Trading Success?
I attach an old article by Dr.Brett N. Steenbarger on stationarity.
I believe all members interested by the Robot's design and concepts should study it carefully.
Indeed, I think the robots are using stationarity rules derived over one or more stationary windows of opportunity.
Neutral windows of opportunity like now are non-stationary (uncertain and whipsawing market).
Non-neutral signals detect rising stationarity early whether into mean-reversion or trend-following mode.
The trade timeframe is not fixed and is dependent on how long the new stationarity is active.
I haven't consulted Pascal about these assertions, so he's welcome to comment.
Billy
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learning from well researched failures
Yesterday, I mentioned that the proper attitude toward the robot was one of student to teacher. I learn from it; hence, I'm the student; yet I remain in a position to profit. When I wrote the sentence I wasn't entirely convinced of it because I hadn't entirely explained what I meant. The article posted by Billy provides a better description of my precise meaning:
[I]A losing streak with well-researched
trades is often a sign that the markets are changing. Standing aside, waiting for evidence
of the new regime, and remodeling the market over the more recent time frame
corresponding to the new regime may allow the trader to learn from losses—and recoup
them as well![/I]
I take the robot absolutely seriously as a well researched trading system. However, I could see from the first day that this latest GDX trade had a greater probability of failure (as did Pascal who hinted that position sizing on this trade would be very important.) Yesterday, in the first hour or so of trading my sense that the trade would go badly was confirmed by sharp price action. I was unable to free myself of my robotic trance until most of the move had vanished. But it was precisely the well-research failure of the robot that made this reversal in the market, this change of playing card decks, so utterly apparent to me. This is what I mean by "learning from the robot."