10-18-2012 mid day comments
Today is shaping up as a distribution day, looking to bring us up to a full count of 6 distribution days and an S4 sell signal. Buy switch looks to remain on with an exposure of +2 (55% invested) if we close like it appears. All of my positions are doing okay but the reduced exposure level will force me to trim one position by end of day. I hold KORS, EQM, N, PII. The usual procedure is to trim the stock with the least gains. The procedure is not really that simple as the holding times for each stock are widely different. PII is my position with the least gains but the shakeout today looks quite positive. KORS is my largest gain but the action is not inspiring.
GOOG is an interesting example. I don't really know how bad the news is but GOOG traded sideways for the entire bull market untill recently. Stocks that are not leaders that begin a move late in a bull market cycle should be viewed with suspicion. Bill O'Neil said it this way: Late in a bull market even turkeys try to fly.
Action of leading stocks have become suspect (MLNX, ALGN, CYBX, SWI, etc). Jerry's leaders index is lagging and will likely look pretty bad after today is finished. Last week I was wondering if the bull market top was already in, maybe it is.
