9-28-2014 Comments

Watch lists were just updated. I am not really excited about anything until this sideways motion develops into a new trend. My guess is the same as Pascal's intuition that the market is putting in a top. I have thought this before and have been wrong and often tops are accompanied with a blow-off stage that I haven't seen.

I am still holding four stocks on the long side (MBLY, BIDU, SWKS, FB), all are up from 2% to 7%. My trading is rules-based and I will hold these until a sell rule is triggered. I may not enter anything new as basically the only thing that is really working is a short list of very extended stocks such as GPRO. When I see a very narrow list of stocks making new highs, this supports the possible market-top thesis. If I don't believe that a 20% gain is available on a stock that I am taking a position in I should not enter. The market has been showing me that most positions that break out stall out immediately.

So if anyone decides to take action using my watch lists this coming week, have a go but I will likely not be joining you.