Uup

Pascal,

To put this subject to bed, can we say it is very doubtful that we will get a US Dollar Robot for those of us, not US based, who would find it extremely useful ?

Thanks in advance.

Trev

From: pascal willain
Sent: Sunday, May 08, 2011 12:38 PM
To: [email]t.wilkinson1@btinternet.com[/email]
Cc: [email]value-in-time@googlegroups.com[/email]
Subject: Re: UUP

Thank you for your enthusiasm Trevor.

It is always good to receive positive feed-back.
In reality, I have found it very difficult to "predict" currencies movements through EV analysis.

Currencies is basically what makes things move around, since it is the most widely used mean of goods and service exchange. Probably 99.9999999999% of all goods and services are exchanged using currencies.

So, for me using the EV pattern on UUP or the US$ futures is like finding a part of the bone of a dinosaur and trying to deduct anything useful about dinosaurs.

The currencies markets are soooo much bigger than UUP and the US$ e-mini futures.

I attach a few figures that show how difficult such analysis can be. On April 21, I showed the EV pattern of the US$ futures. My conclusion was that EV detected the price move twice in the past four occurrences. Hardly a high success rate. And we all know that the US$ fell down to 73 afterwards.

Then, on May 3, I was already showing the UUP pattern, together with a US$ futures that did not show anything.

My conclusion is that in hindsight, I can prove anything. Only statistical analysis is the answer.

No way we could ever have such a Robot. If I was clever enough to make a US$ reliable robot, for sure I would already be assistant to the guys who "are doing God's work"

[QUOTE=Pascal;12505]No way we could ever have such a Robot. If I was clever enough to make a US$ reliable robot, for sure I would already be assistant to the guys who "are doing God's work"[/QUOTE]

Thanks for the quick reply Pascal. The only way GS people can look themselves in the mirror is too quote pithy comments like "we are doing God's work".

Trev

[url]http://thefinaledition.com/[/url]

Scroll to the lower left and you'll find an article about un-jailed Americans. Second on the list is LB of GS.

While you're at it, read the DSK letter from jail.

BTW, this satire is presented by the folks from The Onion, Spinal Tap, Jon Stewart, and the like.

[QUOTE=ilonaross;12523][url]http://thefinaledition.com/[/url]

Scroll to the lower left and you'll find an article about un-jailed Americans. Second on the list is LB of GS.

While you're at it, read the DSK letter from jail.

BTW, this satire is presented by the folks from The Onion, Spinal Tap, Jon Stewart, and the like.[/QUOTE]

If you get a chance a must see film is 'Inside Job'. It is a constant reminder why we need to be trading on the same side as the large institutions if we want to survive this game.

[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inside_Job_(film[/url])

This is why systems like the Robot which trade long and short are an absolute necessity these days IMHO.

Trev

Pascal,

In the US Dollar futures there is currently no data. There might be a problem somewhere.

[QUOTE=Andrei;12576]Pascal,

In the US Dollar futures there is no data. There might be a problem somewhere.[/QUOTE]

I do not see any issue there. Maybe refresh the browser?

pascal

[QUOTE=Pascal;12577]I do not see any issue there. Maybe refresh the browser?

pascal[/QUOTE]


I tried viewing the page with both IE and Google Chrome, that's what I get. Interestingly, with all other futures/sections everything is ok.

[QUOTE=Andrei;12578]I tried viewing the page with both IE and Google Chrome, that's what I get. Interestingly, with all other futures/sections everything is ok.[/QUOTE]

This has been fixed Andrei! Thanassis noticed that this article was not "published", meaning that managers could see it, but nobody else could.

I'll try to pay attention to this type of publication option in the future.

Pascal

Thanassis ,

US$ futures must not be published again as it's not available for viewing this morning?