New GDX Model

A small note regarding a difference between the old and the new MF model (this is for those who asked an access to the new model).

As of now, both models are in a short mode approaching the Oversold level.
The old model would be turning to a buy mode as soon as the signal passes below the Oversold level.
The new GDX model will first turn to a cash mode when it crosses below the OS level, and then will turn to a buy mode when it reverses back above that level + porosity.

We are thus now at stage 7. We will then wait in cash until we reach stage 1.

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The different status of this new model is shown below, with their description.

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1.A buy trade is triggered when the true signal crosses over the OS level. The Model enters into state 1: "Bought Oversold". A reversal below the OS level would turn the model back to a cash situation. The buy trade is therefore "protected" by the OS level just below it.
2.When the true signal crosses above the pink average line, it enters into state 2: Bought Protected. This means that the buy trade is protected by the pink average line. If we fall back below that line, the buy trade is closed and the model switches to state 7: Shorted Protected.
3.When the true signal crosses above the 0 line, it enters into state 3: Bought. This means that the buy trade is protected by the 0 line. If we fall back below that line, the buy trade is closed and the model switches to state 6: Shorted.
4.Once it crosses over the OB level, the model enters into state 4: Bought Oversold. This means that the buy trade is protected by the OB line. If we fall back below that line, the buy trade is closed and the model switches to state 5: Shorted Overbought
5.The Shorted Overbought state is maintained until the true signal reaches the 0 level. If it reverses back above the OB level, the model turns to a cash position.
6.When the true signal crosses below the 0 line, it enters into state 6: Shorted. This means that the short trade is protected by the 0 line. If we reverse back above that line, the short trade is closed and the model switches to state 3: Bought.
7.When the true signal crosses below the pink average line, it enters into state 7: Shorted Protected. This means that the short trade is protected by the average line. If we reverse back above that line, the short trade is closed and the model switches to state 2: Bought protected.
8.When the true signal falls below the OS level, it reverses to cash.

We switched to the new model today.
The sell-off during the first 30 minutes on low selling indicates that the probability of a buy signal today is increasing.

Gold/Silver are pulling back right now, which puts pressure on the sector.
Therefore, I would only take a partial long position on a buy signal.
I also advise to check the EV pattern on the Gold/Silver futures during the day.



Pascal

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The GDX MF model is about to issue a buy signal.
Note that there had been an error on the signal strength: the signal is strong.


Pascal

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[QUOTE=Pascal;24125]
The different status of this new model is shown below, with their description.

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2.When the true signal crosses above the pink average line, it enters into state 2: Bought Protected. This means that the buy trade is protected by the pink average line. If we fall back below that line, the buy trade is closed and the model switches to state 7: Shorted Protected.
[/QUOTE]

Thanks Pascal, very interesting. However, there is no average on the real charts, how do we know that the signal has gone above it?

Adriano

[QUOTE=Adriano;24172]Thanks Pascal, very interesting. However, there is no average on the real charts, how do we know that the signal has gone above it?

Adriano[/QUOTE]

Below the MF graph is a check-box for Average money flow.

I'm not sure why you deleted it, but indeed I didn't pay attention to the checkbox, sorry and thanks.

Oh, ok for a moment I saw your answer as deleted.