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Pascal:
Do you think it a good idea, before trading the GDX RT model, to look at LEV vs SEV (with the RT EV chart) and weight LEV more heavily than the SEV?
The RT model is showing a slow drift up in MF today, very close to triggering a Buy if someone wants to try and anticipate that, but in looking at the RT EV chart (thank you!) you can see that today's MF increase is due to SEV not LEV.
[QUOTE=DJones;25987]Pascal:
Do you think it a good idea, before trading the GDX RT model, to look at LEV vs SEV (with the RT EV chart) and weight LEV more heavily than the SEV?
The RT model is showing a slow drift up in MF today, very close to triggering a Buy if someone wants to try and anticipate that, but in looking at the RT EV chart (thank you!) you can see that today's MF increase is due to SEV not LEV.[/QUOTE]
I never look at the GDX EV pattern itself, because it is misleading. It is almost a contrarian indicator.
The RT model is built using the LEV * Price from each of the component, one by one. If it is up, it means that large players are buying. It is useful to watch the LEV pattern of the main components such as ABX, GG, AEM, NEM, SLW, KGC
Most of the large funds are heavily shorts the gold miners. Some have started covering, but with the mood regarding interest rates, I believe that shorts will still stay strong. As of now, there are mainly three types of signals that work on GDX:
Buy Oversold if you take your profit early enough
Short or Short Overbought (they are almost none in this environment)
The Buy signals on the GDX model do not work well because of the heavy short position: when GDX reaches the Buy level, it is often not far from a downturn.
I also closely watch the EV pattern for the gold Futures (GOLDF) as well as the USD.
Pascal
[QUOTE=Pascal;25988]I never look at the GDX EV pattern itself, because it is misleading. It is almost a contrarian indicator.
The RT model is built using the LEV * Price from each of the component, one by one. If it is up, it means that large players are buying. It is useful to watch the LEV pattern of the main components such as ABX, GG, AEM, NEM, SLW, KGC
Most of the large funds are heavily shorts the gold miners. Some have started covering, but with the mood regarding interest rates, I believe that shorts will still stay strong. As of now, there are mainly three types of signals that work on GDX:
Buy Oversold if you take your profit early enough
Short or Short Overbought (they are almost none in this environment)
The Buy signals on the GDX model do not work well because of the heavy short position: when GDX reaches the Buy level, it is often not far from a downturn.
I also closely watch the EV pattern for the gold Futures (GOLDF) as well as the USD.
Pascal[/QUOTE]
Thanks...very helpful...