7-17-2014 after the close comments
Jerry said it all, the market got pasted today.
I am in the middle of evaluating the new Volume Trigger Alert system which is frustrating because this is a buy system and the market is selling off. Still URI and AET issued volume trigger alerts today. With the general market selling off I decided to not act but just keep my powder dry.
In a way I hope we get a real market correction. We have gone 33 months since the last 10%+ correction. This has happened 5 times in history: 2005-2007, 1984-1987, 1934-1937 and 1926-1929. Each of these prior cases led to 35%+ corrections. I think we could use it.
Using the Warren Buffet measure of market frothiness: Total market capitalization as a percent of GDP has reached 127%. This is nosebleed territory. The 2000 dot com bubble peak was 150%, the 2007 real-estate bubble peak was 111%.
I am not fooled that the Federal Reserve is probably trapped into providing liquidity and low interest rates until the system implodes. I have read that all central banks have been buying equities. They have found themselves in the same pot of a no-yield environment that the rest of us are in. They have had to step out into more risky investments. [URL="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Cris-Sheridan-140627-Central-Banks-Buy-Stocks.php"]http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Cris-Sheridan-140627-Central-Banks-Buy-Stocks.php[/URL]
One estimate of the amount of stock held by all central banks is 50% of all shares. If this is even remotely the situation the world is in trouble. If we have a bear market what in the heck would a central bank that has gorged themselves with equities do? Unwinding of positions could be massive.
Janet Yellen's comment make sense now
Hi-
Now I understand Yellen and her staff's comments on biotech and social media being over-valued.. They are talking their book just like Goldman and others do on CNBC.
Agree that we need a material correction to set the table for a solid rally - eliminating QE could be the fundamentals behind that correction.
Shawn