We can see that the $SPX is creating a bullish C&H pattern, during the historically 85% bullish April - when April is a year preceding a presidential election. This is at least what everybody can see or read on the Internet.
On the interest rates front, we can see that the 10Y rates pushed below the 3.4% level but then bounced above it. The market will need to stay below 3.4% for a long period of time in order to sustain higher equities prices.
For now, the $SPX is slightly overvalued.
But the Mcclellan and the NHNL indicator still point to a continuation of the bounce.
The NQ8 is moving higher in terms of price, but with less energy - there is less money pushing equities higher than in the previous uptrend.
Interesting to see here that investors are seeking protection:
Interesting to also see that everything priced in US$ (Gold, silver and commodities are up)
The US$ itself looks rather weak.
Conclusions:
The above figures tend to point to a weaker US$ due to weaker coming interest rates and as a consequence we will probably witness slightly higher equities. At least until earnings come into play.
I am 30% long here, the rest is cash. We might get lower prices in May/June if earnings expectations are weak.
