First, we can see that the $SPX has been in a downtrend for most of last year as the Fed has been hiking interest rates. However, expectations have been more optimistic starting last October, even though equities have not gained much since then.
This is simply because interest rates have stayed high, while earnings expectations have been lowered. This is a combination that makes it difficult for equities to gain traction.
We can see below that equities are still slightly overvalued here, which makes any push higher more difficult to sustain, except if rates come down hard below 3.4%.
We can see below a short-term uptrend shown in Red dots, within a long-term downtrend shown in Blue dots.
The Maclellan indicator has now reversed up, indicating that the trend is changing to the upside, but I have doubts that we can catch much higher prices in a sustainable way.
Conclusions:
The equities markets could break above the 50MA, but I do not see a sustainable uptrend starting here.
