• Comments for March 1, 2023

    Still a rather strange market: in terms of yield based valuations, the $SPX is clearly overvalued.





    The Mcclellan indicator still displays weakness.



    Large investors also show weakness, but the Money flow is still positive. Past bounces have occured after the Money Flow dropped below zero, which we are far from yet.



    Finally, the NHNL indicator stays stubbornly above 0. The best buying opportunities occur when there is panic selling, which we do not see anywhere as of now.



    Conclusions:

    As far as the 10Y rate stays high, I believe that there is very limited upside in equities, especially when future expected earnings are weakening.

    As a matter of fact, equities should pull back down somewhat from here.