• Comments for December 21, 2022

    After breaking down last week, the S&P500 seems to be trying to form a stabilization pattern here.



    The 20DMF has been negative for quite some days now and we can see that the leading NQ8 Money Flow is now negative.





    The Money Flow on the S&P500 does not show signs that markets are going to bounce from here



    The real issue is that Treasuries continued to be sold and the 10Y rate broke above the downtrend line.





    As the BOJ also increased interest rates, liquidity might be moving toward Yen denominated assets now. This could also be a negative of US equities.



    The LT Yield comparison however shows that the markets are not overvalued here and could bounce back to about $4080.



    Conclusions:

    Interest rates pressure is what matters for now.
    The second negative for January is that earnings expectations have decreased since last quarter. Hence January earnings season could be rather negative.