• Comment for December 22, 2021

    As expected, the markets bounced yesterday, but clearly on a very weak - end of the Year - volume. This does not say that the $SPX will not test its recent highs before the end of the Year.



    We can see below that all the sectors attracted money, but it seems that the small caps and ARKK seem to display steeper Money Flow patterns compared to the NQ8 sector.









    It is simply maybe because both the small caps and ARKK had been oversold and hence experienced stronger bounces.

    This also shows on the IWM/SPY and the ARKK/QQQ ratio charts.





    Conclusions:

    As we are approaching the end of 2021, most investors have two objectives in mind:
    1. What to sell in order to offset tax gains - and also for funds in order to nicely present the portfolio to potential capital contributors
    2. What to buy for 2022

    We have two useful tools here:
    1. The Effective Volume indicator tells whether large investors are buying or selling
    2. The Neutral Boundary - NB - shown on the Volume histogram charts is the price level at which the total float is neutral in term of price gain/loss. This means that it the last price close (Shown by the '$' symbol) is below the NB, then there is a propensity for stockholders to sell their position in order to book the tax loss.

    For example, PINS seems to be attracting money, but is still below its NB. Hence, I would not buy until year end.





    After attracting money, VMW is now under selling pressure. This displays investors 'selling in strength' while the price is still below the NB.





    WLTW and SNOW are under very strong accumulation while above their respective NB. These stocks are attractive.









    GIII is a clear short idea here: large investors are selling and the stock is below its NB.



    Comments 2 Comments
    1. Sophie's Avatar
      Happy holidays to you Pascal and thanks for all your hard work .
    1. Pascal's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Sophie View Post
      Happy holidays to you Pascal and thanks for all your hard work .
      Thank you!

      Pascal