• Comments for November 18, 2021

    The equities market pulled back yesterday, but we can see below that as far as we do not pull below the low of November, the market has a good probability to break to new highs.



    There was some weakness yesterday,



    but we can see below that the NQ8 sector continued attracting money.









    The smaller stocks displayed weakness yesterday.





    The small caps are indeed underperforming here.



    The retail sector for example experienced weakness.



    The futures however look much stronger than last week





    The new-highs-new-lows indicator weakened together with the small caps, but we are still above the low of -50 where dip buyers would show up.



    Conclusions:

    The elephant in the stock market room is still the Fed, which increased its reverse repo operations by B$130 in the past two days, crossing the $T1.5 threshold.



    The 10Y rates did not drop much, but I believe that it will react to the Fed's RR activities. In other words, I believe that lower 10Y rates will help the S&P500 breaking to new highs next week.