• Comments for July 6, 2021

    After a long steady uptrend in June, the NQ100 broke out to a new high on Friday.



    This move was mostly due to the largest caps and the tech sector.









    We can however see below that in the past Five trading days, the 20DMF did not really support the price uptrend. This means that most liquidity is concentrating on a few stocks, but that the rest of the market does not attract that much money.



    The New High New Low indicator shows that a decreasing number of stocks are participating in the current move.



    The small caps still look less attractive, but I would not turn short here as the most probable move on the small caps would once again be a short squeeze.





    The Futures still show accumulation.





    The 10Y rates closed slightly below their support level, but low interest rates combined to high earnings expectation still makes equities more attractive compared to Treasuries or corporate bonds.








    Conclusions:

    We would need the NQ8 stocks to badly miss earnings or to really guide down in order for this market to take a hit. Nobody expects this outcome.

    What we might expect however are cracks in mid-sized stocks that have been pushed higher through ETFs buying, but whose earnings could not justify current valuations.

    Below is the most recent list of trade ideas.