The NQ8 and the largest caps underperformed on Friday, but also maybe due to the Russell rebalancing which forced readjustments in the small caps.
Anyway, the futures still look positive here.
Materials looked weak though.
Seasonality analysis for the past 30 Years shows relative weakness in the summer months, but when we limit the data to the past 20 days, July looks to be one of the best months to be long. This tells me that seasonality study will hardly make people rich as results depend on the set of data used.
The New-High-New-Low divergence to price is another macro analysis that many traders follow. A negative divergence means that fewer stocks participate in the uptrend and hence that the uptrend is prone to failure. I still have to see relevant statistical backtest of this principle especially in an environment where ETFs and index investing play such a large role.
Interest rates and money flow are probably the most relevant data to follow. The 10Y rates seem to be bouncing here. If we break above the downtrending line, this might signal higher rates for the future.
Conclusions:
I stay long here.
The trade ideas Table for the day is below. The short list did not shrink much. This indicates that there is still negativity in specific stocks.
