• Comments for January 5, 2018

    Markets were slightly more bearish yesterday, higher prices attracted selling.



    This was most obvious on the small caps. I shorted them in strength yesterday. Not sure whether this trade will work, but at least drawdown is limited since the trade will be exited if the small caps break their recent highs.



    Income based sectors are the most bearish as the markets expect higher rates justified by lower unemployment.





    This is also probably why teh small caps have underperformed as of late: they are much more vulnerable to rate increases.



    The 10Y Treasuries are still being sold, the money having to move into ETFs and large caps.



    On the other hand, we can see below on the ETF trend summary page that most ETFs are neutral (Yellow colored cells). Only commodities based ETFs are bullish, mostly due to the weak US$ combined to bullish oil prices.







    Note below that both the Yen and the Euro still display negative EV/Price divergences.





    Conclusions:

    I believe that the Euro/US$ and the Yen/US$ will weaken due to rates differentials.

    Regarding equities, there is no real weakness, except some selling in the small caps.