• Comments for December 21, 2017

    I hesitated to post the figures below, because they look much more negative than what reality dictates at this time of year. In other words, the Money Flow or Effective Volume negativity shown below might not translate into price negativity. However, they raise red flags.

    First, the 20DMF continued displaying a negative divergence, while the Cumulative Tick is also relatively weak. The main issue is probably related to day trading algos, which failed to ride the tax deal news higher and had to sell-at-the-close for most of the past few days. This means that manipulation to push prices higher is obviously failing. Algo managers still have one or two days to try this tactic, but I believe they will unplug everything between Christmas and New Year.



    Both the NQ8/NQ100 are still above the 0 level, but yesterday was a selling day.



    Small caps display a weakening and now negative Money Flow.



    What is most troubling is that the XLF and XLI ETFs attract much selling. Are investors suspecting that the tax deal will be negative for industrial and financial stocks?





    Index investors such as SPY buyers are also now net sellers.



    Note the selling in SSO too...



    On the Treasuries front, we can see some positive divergences forming. Higher rates attract money into US Treasuries (and into the US$ too).









    On a side story, oil is also displaying a negative EV pattern.



    Conclusions:

    It makes sense to clean your portfolio at this time of the Year.