• Comments for December 15, 2017

    The tax deal is determining market sentiment these days.

    We can see below that both the 20DMF and the Cumulative Tick led the markets lower yesterday.



    The small caps displayed a negative Money Flow.



    However, the leading NQ8 did not show a similar weakness.





    Conclusions:

    With markets overextended as they have been for months, even the smallest concern could spark a stampede to exit long positions.

    BUT... the Santa rally is still to be expected. We can see in the table below (that I published in past days but have slightly reorganized) that yesterday was December 14 and yesterday's December 14 S&P500 gain was rather weak compared with past year gains as of the same date. Stats show that the probability to end the year strong is rather high.

    Hence: I'll buy today's weakness.