http://www.effectivevolume.com/showt...ta-Claus-Rally
This article is very bullish for December, based on past statistics.
I continued that research and found out that the December 15 to December 31 returns greatly depended on returns for the first half of December.
The table below shows S&P500 gains during December since 1995. These gains have been sorted by increasing gains as of December 14.
We can see in Yellow that when gains were negative at the end of Dec 14, then the rest of December was very strong, with an average of 2.3% gain (10/11 win/loss ratio.)
However, if the returns were positive by December 14, then the rest of the month was mixed, with only average gains of 0.6% and a win/loss ratio of 50%.
Conclusions:
I believe that the above data could be a good guide for trading from the close of the coming Friday.
If Friday the S&P500 closes below $2647.58, then the December price is expected to reach $2708.5.
This also means that we should aim at buying weakness this week for a bounce later in December.
