On a longer term base, both the 20DMF and the Cumùlative tick look much more negative than the SPY price.
Note below how weak the NQ8 Money Flow was early in the afternoon bounce. This is a sign that money is only reluctantly following price.
Most of yesterday's weakness was still in the small caps. We can see below that the small caps broke their recent low and have now displayed a weak bounce (Lower high).
The IWM/SPY ratio indicates that here is however the place to buy the small caps.
Index investors are not giving up, except for IWM. As far as the QQQ/SPY's respective TEV pattern stays above the pink average line, then everything is fine with index investors.
The "number of days until a short signal" is still trending higher, indicating that a short signal will not be issued before a few days. Since next week is options expirations, I expect a tentative bounce next week.
The Yen strength/10 Years Treasuries weakness patterns are continuing. The only explanation is that Japanese investors are selling US Treasuries and reverting the proceeds into Yen cash. Is there a political meaning behind this, knowing that the BOJ is under complete Japanese Governmental control? US/Chinese trade agreement signature against US/Japan trade bashing issues?
Conclusions:
The US/China, US/Japan trade discussions issues could be the reason behind the selling of US Treasuries. There is however not much we can do about it.
For now, I have the feeling based on the data that even though Index investors are not giving up, there is much weakness in the small caps. The small caps are oversold here and hence not a good place to short them, but next week will probably be bullish for the markets and could offer more opportunities to short the small caps.
I will continue monitoring the NQ8 Money Flow for early signs of selling.
