• Comments for November 7, 2017

    The whole market is still being pushed higher by the NQ8 stocks.



    Even small caps turned positive in terms of Money Flow.



    The other impressive group is energy, which pushed back up in strength yesterday, reverting previous negativity. This push was mainly due to a rise in oil prices due to political uncertainty in Saudi Arabia.







    Several sectors such as Health and Industrials are still performing poorly.





    We can still see negative divergences on the S&P500 and the Dow futures, while the NQ100 futures look more positive.







    The SPY EV pattern is still positive, contrary to the QQQ EV pattern. This shows that index investors are probably getting conscious that value might matter down the road.





    As a consequence, the "number of days until a short signal" indicator bounced. I am hence less openly negative here and would say that we might need to wait a few more days to get a pullback: the market is resilient, even at these overextended prices.



    Note below that the Yen still looks to be under accumulation although the price is in a downtrend. This accumulation is slightly US equities bearish.



    But 10 Year Treasuries display a negative LEV pattern, which is slightly US equities positive. Both the Yen and the 10 Years' EV pattern might also just indicate a reversal to the mean type of trade.



    Also, individual investors have started buying Volatility based ETFs. These ETFs are very poor instruments to be long volatility, due to their natural decay. However, this shows the tendency of private investors (professionals do not buy these instruments.) This is by no mean a sign that volatility will turn back up.





    Conclusions:

    Internals look weak, but the NQ8 are still leading equities higher, now followed by energy stocks.
    There is evidence that some investors are betting on a reversal to the mean type of move.

    On a side story, PAYX looks interesting as a long trade. Earnings are still far away and ratings look good.