The portfolio is now 80% in short.
In my weekly comment, I wrote that I will target shorting small caps this week. The main reason is that after outperforming on Thursday-Friday due to options expiration, small caps should underperform this week.
This in fact also means that large caps should outperform this week. Since I am short XLF, I might have to cut that position in order to find a better shorting opportunity (a small cap that is broken down.)
Note below that AAPL sold off in the final trading minutes of Friday. This is probably the reason why the MF turned negative on the S&P500, while it is still positive on the 20DMF: on the S&P500, AAPL's weight is three times higher than on the 20DMF, which follows a sector based equal weight.
Because AAPL could reverse back-up after the options push down, I believe that large caps could open on a gap up on Monday, pulling small caps higher. However,small caps will probably sell down from the open. This is what I believe will happen, except if news over the weekend push everything down.
The trade ideas for Monday are below. I might also buy some oversold Fertilizer such as POT/MOS