The GDX position should continue to progress today.
I was hoping to increase the TZA long (short the Russell 2000) on a pullback to 28.6 (close to the 5MA), but this range was never reached. The Futures are up now, meaning that TZA could easily pull back down to its 5MA. Depending the the Cumulative Tick, I might increase the position... However, this week is options expirations, which means that we have a positive bias for equities and hence, a bounce could build over two or three days instead of just one day. As can be seen below, the stop level is low into the envelope, with only 1% probability to be reached in the next five days.
The trade ideas for today are below; most are long oversold ideas.
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I would like to come back to the trading results for 2016: we can see that the portfolio is doing "in line" with the S&P500.
However, trading has been choppy for most of 2016, with any new trend being reversed as soon as it emerged.
For example, we can see below that since the 20DMF short signal of September 9, the return on the short side has been nill.
We can see that the portfolio's Risk/return ratio is now below 1, indicating that the trading strategy is losing money.
In a choppy market where no progress is made, the best is to reduce the position size AND the number of positions. This is why in 2016 the investment ratio has fallen down close to 30% (only 30% of the portfolio on average was invested each day.)
Since I do not expect October to be a great Month, yesterday, I added a free Month to all subscribers who have followed the portfolio for a least one Month. I will continue doing that as far as I am not satisfied with my own trading.
During the present earnings season, I will preferably trade ETFs over individual stocks.