• Portfolio Management for August 12, 2016

    Yesterday, I bought two long positions: VNQ and JNJ. Both are pulling back but display a strong EV pattern. VNQ fell "hard" yesterday due to Macy's decision to close 100 stores, which spooked investors in commercial real-estate such as SPG. This is what we might witness will be the first fight between value and liquidity. I vote for liquidity being the winner.





    Note that these two new positions do not really increase the portfolio risk, as it is calculated at -0.08% for the next five days, with a maximum drawdown of 0.85%



    On the other hand, we can see below that the potential returns on the JNJ position are not exceptional: with only 1.7% expected returns after 20 days.



    Potential returns for VNQ are even lower. This tells us something important: you cannot have low risks combined to high returns.



    The trade ideas for today are below. Still mostly long ideas.However, the portfolio is now 60% long and hence, opening a short position could do well in terms of total max drawdown.