For example, Buying an Oversold stock such as AAPL yesterday requests that the general market corporates and bounces higher or at least that the sector cooperates. If it does not, such as it was the case yesterday, it is best to get out of the trade and rethink.
I posted intraday messages here, but you also received info by email.
http://www.effectivevolume.com/showt...9175-Long-AAPL
The WNR situation was different, because it was never under selling pressure after the Breakout.
WNR issued a Breakout on Volume alert, which allowed us to be "fats on the ball".
We can see that at the EOD, WNR displays a negative LEV/Price divergence. this is normal when you have a strong move up: some large holders are taking money out of the table, especially since the general market was negative.
The Refiners sector however was displaying a strong MF (refiners do well with weak oil prices)
We can see that the bounce of the past few days is supported by strong volume.
This means that the Breakout might continue working. In such a condition, we should expect a pullback within the breakout zone and then maybe a follow-through.
Below is the sensitivity analysis to a pullback. This table tells us that any pullback is buyable, but of course only if the EV pattern is NOT negative: you want to see large players accumulate shares during the pullback.
Below are the stats for the lowest of these pullback prices that have a probability higher than 10% to be reached today (Based on past price action in the last 300 days.)
I might increase the position by adding 1/2 position today, depending on market conditions. The $38 support must hold, otherwise I will fall into a risk-off strategy for that trade.
The EDU trade is also interesting to analyse. I regret that I only took 1/2 trade, which works well on the short side (Chinese companies are crashing.)
EDU fell on strong volume. It is below its envelope. Not good to short here.
We can see below that bounces should work well for us entering new short positions.
This is the strongest bounce in price with at least a 10% probability to be reached.
The Portfolio is now 30% invested. The total DD risk is close to 0.5%
The list of trade ideas for today is below. You will note that BOV/BDV lists if ideas is longer than the normal Pullback/bounces of last year, because not many of these ideas will ever issue an alert.
Also, you will note that many ideas are "Bounce after a BDV". The reason for these trades is that these stocks are so much down that it makes little sense to short them here. Shorting makes sense only on a weak bounce.
The Portfolio is doing fine here.
We are just at the S&P500/Portfolio correlation line. So "business as usual."