• Weekly Comments for November 23, 2015

    The weeks around Thanksgiving carry a strong positive bias, so investors should expect markets to move higher.

    The last two days have been really quiet, with the 20DMF showing not even the slightest hint of stress.



    Oil is "drifting" together with XLE. No real investment story there.





    Gold does not attract money. No real stress there. No investment story either.



    I find strange that the 5Y and the 10 Y are still attracting money. (The 20Y was sold on Friday, but the 20Y is less traded than the 5Y and 10Y.)







    The VIX shows that protection is being bought.



    So two independent measures of risk showing that protection is being bought.

    Now, we can see below that the Mammoth sector does not support new highs. This is also something strange that bears more investigation.





    We can see below that AAPL and GE are under selling pressure. This is not due to options expiration because it is very difficult to move these stocks just to meet a price target. This is the result of supply/demand... And I do not know why large funds would be selling AAPL and GE.









    Conclusions:

    It is difficult to be short knowing that we are just starting a two weeks bullish period, but I wonder what the above signs are indicating? Is this how e-coli looks like before markets start to vomit (ask CMG!) or will a holiday period kill the bad germ before it develops into an all-out dump?

    And by the way, the only tradable story for this week is seasonality.


    Disclaimer
    Signals are provided as general information and are not investment recommendations.
    You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable.