Sharing my opinion will not help anyone, because an individual's opinion - especially the strongly voiced opinions - carry the predictive power of a line drawn on a price graph: almost none!
For months, the Fed has guided investors to expect a rate increase. And as I pointed over last week, funds have been positioning for a rate increase, with gold, Treasuries, and defensive stocks all posting declines.
The S&P500 is at the end of its oscillating phase after the big "China" drop.
I believe that on Friday, the first speculation that the Fed will not raise rates started to take place, with real estate-linked sectors attracting good money.
Conclusions:
It is in the Fed's interest not to shake the markets further after the most recent drop. Hence I vote for a delay or for a very tiny 0.1% increase...
and my vote carries zero predictive value.
I am 30% long and do not intend to carry short positions through the announcement, unless I see the need to balance the Portfolio.
