• Portfolio Management for July 2, 2015

    Since the 20DMF was showing a continuous negative divergence yesterday (except for the final minutes of trading, which correspond to day-trading algos closing their positions,) I opened two positions: a long SDS and a short MGM.

    Now, it is true that I feel uneasy about the short MGM position. I opened it because the EV pattern looked poor and because the system generated a short alert on MGM. However, overnight MGM received an analyst upgrade and hence I expect that it might push higher. On the other hand, upgrades from analysts are often communicated to customers before a press release is published. Hence, the MGM bounce of the past days might just be buyers ahead of the press release.



    Although I wrote in the daily comment that better prices will probably be seen next week, I have found three interesting stocks to buy. NTI/ETP are certainly oversold and show a nice bounce pattern. NTI is a refiner and with the plunge of oil yesterday, it is only natural that NTI's crack spread increases. ETP is probably more speculative here. A few mergers have occurred in the sector, which is also a safe haven.

    All these safe haven stocks (REITS, Pipelines, Utilities) have been under pressure because of the fear of a Fed rate rise. However, this is overdone I believe, since a rate rise will be extremely slow and mild (This is just an opinion.)





    FLIR looks also interesting. I did not dig into this stock and why it is attracting money right now. Maybe a share buyback or a new military contract? No idea here.



    All in all, I want to be neutral by the close of today. Hence, I intend to probably sell MGM and Buy one of the three longs or keep MGM and buy two of the long ideas.