• Portfolio Management for June 29, 2015

    Last Friday was somewhat difficult: the portfolio started out 80% short and 20% long position, as I was convinced Europe had made its final proposal and that this had been rejected Thursday night.

    However, overnight, Europe made a nicer proposal that officially kicked problems down the road for six more months, while allowing Greece to implement some watered down reforms. This could have been a Win-Win face saving solution. However, to the general surprise - and my own surprise too - Greece opted for short-term pain instead of longer-term reform.

    All in all, I reversed the short position early in the day and once the long TREX started to unravel, I finally had to close it too, reverting to cash.

    You can see below that both OLN/HPQ started to attract money on Friday. It was hence clear that investors were expecting short-covering on Monday. This fully justifies the fact that I had to cover the short positions.





    All in all, I generated a little profit on the trades, but really it was almost impossible to decide on the market direction.



    As the Greek situation is clearer now, we have two choices: short weakness or buy weakness. I believe that shorting a strong opening down-gap offers very poor chances to make money, as there is not much stress for now: The futures and gold have both reverted their early gaps.





    I would be looking at buying stocks from the long list below.



    I will also consider HACK, SYMC or AVG if HACK reaches back down to the 50MA.
    The pull-back could also be a two- or three-day affair, as margin calls might only be coming on June 30 or July 1, after the official Greek default.