• Portfolio Management for June 26, 2015

    Yesterday's weakening market pushed me more to the short side: I opened a second half SFM short and opened a new OLN short position when the stock issued a short signal.

    Let's now review the different positions:

    1. TREX

    We are long TERX. We can see that the EV pattern is still positive and that TREX is still above its Lower Boundary, which is close to the 50MA. Hence, the 50MA can serve as a guide for this trade. I lowered the stop just below the 50MA, but will still keep flexibility during the day. TREX is our only long position.





    2. HPQ

    The EV pattern for HPQ is somewhat volatile and not reliable. Supply, however, shows there is still room for the stock to fall.





    3.SFM


    The EV pattern is straight down and the Supply also tells us there is more room to fall.





    4.OLN

    OLN displayed a weak EV pattern during yesterday's bounce, but the Supply tells us that we are close to the Lower Boundaries. This is a place where a bounce could occur, especially on a positive EV pattern. Something to keep an eye on.





    We can see below that the statistical risk for the portfolio is -0.33%, while the max drawdown for the next five days could be 2.5%. This is rather high, but this does not take into account that the Portfolio is 20/80 balanced.



    The ideas for today are below. I have no intention of trading these as the Portfolio is 100% invested.