If you remember, on Wednesday and Thursday, I played some possible tactical market bounces, which I had to close at almost breakeven prices. I started Friday with the same "trade a bounce" spirit, but as soon as market weakened again, I sold my newly bought SPXL at the buy price, missing the big run that started minutes after I sold. See the two arrows in the figure below.
After some venting activity - which I will not fully describe here - I concluded that I had been trading the reversal patterns of the past two days, failing to see that is exactly what professional market players wanted me to do. So, yes, I fell into their trap!
I did not lose money, but this is no consolation for having missed a very good trading opportunity.
If I had kept that position, trading today would have been 100 times easier: I could have raised stops, opened new shorts to hedge or wait and see what happens with the markets.
Now, I start in a portfolio that is 100% in cash. The system is about to issue a buy signal, but the market might just as easily reverse down. However, I think the most obvious trade is a bounce continuation. Now, I hope Mr Market agrees with me!
The list of potential trades for today is below. I highlighted in yellow those that look the most interesting. I will start at least with one long position and then see how this develops.