I received the question below.
Pascal,
From the past daily comments and PMs, you expected that Wed. FOMC would be a big positive for market, so why you keep SDS until today? Why not sold it yesterday when market had a decline?
The same question for CMG, of course you have a big buffer now, but why not sold yesterday to have more gain(since you expect a uptrend to Wed.)? or, as you said in one of daily/PM comments, after Wed will have downtrend and you believe that CMG will take this ride to have another big decline?
This is difficult to answer without making a fool of myself.
Yes, I could have sold SDS on Monday. The error was not that I sold it yesterday, but it is that I did not replace it by a TNA short yesterday. I was indeed waiting for the price to come to me and then it "went away." The issue with SDS is that it came close to the buy price at 28.02 and I sold it at 28.03. At that time, FAF was also under pressure. Selling SDS gave me a free hand to also sell FAF, so that the portfolio stayed short for today.
But I really regret not shorting TNA.
For CMG, I did some trading between Monday and Yesterday on a part of the position. I usually do not send emails regarding these small adjustments. I do that when I have an extra large position: I take partial profits and then re-enter the trade. Please do not hesitate to perform that sort of adjustment. It usually is "free money".
Unfortunately, I am not a perfect trader. I make many mistakes and I often close a position against any common sense, just out of fear. Sometimes, I also miss opportunities because I am having dinner or doing something else. Yesterday, I was watching a great soccer game on TV (Madrid against Munchen) and when I returned to the desk, the TNA trade was already too far.
If you look for example at the FAF trade, in fact it was an entry and a stop mistake. My idea was to buy at 26.56 and I ended up buying much higher, with a stop too close. FAF is now in a position where I would advise to buy. However it did not come out of the scan. hence, I'll need to wait.
The Portfolio is now at a "no risk" situation.
The list of potential trades for today is below. Only short trades.
You will note that most of them had down-gaps on earnings and then are displaying bounces on negative EV patterns. These are the best opportunities to short. The Yellow and Blue trades are the most probable. The pink trades are "far away," but could come into play on a good market action after the FOMC meeting.