The portfolio now has two longs and two shorts.
Sine the Portfolio is neutral, it is unrealistic to believe that all of these positions will do well.
Indeed, QID has a greater than 70% chance of hitting the stop in the next 5 days. This is rather high and needs to be managed. I probably will trim the QID position and compensate for it by entering new short(s) in specific stocks whose earnings are much further down the road.
As you can see below, even though the portfolio is 80% invested, it only carries a statistical risk of -0.53% for the next five days and a max drawdown of -1.39%. This max drawdown will only be hit if all four positions move against us, which is very unlikely.
Not only is there not much to fear here, but in addition the profit potential for the positions other than QID is rather good. We only need to manage the stops and exit when necessary.
I will mainly concentrate on the short ideas highlighted in Yellow.
Below are the Figures for ICE and ROST.
ICE was discussed yesterday and ROST is a new idea. It is a retail stock that fell below the 200/50MA and presents a weak EV pattern. A short seems natural at 70, with a stop above the 50MA (71.5 to 72)