• Portfolio Management for January 10, 2013

    As noted in the intraday emails, I closed both SCCO and CPB yesterday.
    Both fell through an intermediate low, and as for SCCO its related commodity, copper, was under heavy selling pressure.





    I also raised the SUNE stop. You can see below that the first stop level I considered had a 50% probability of being hit, so I used the lower stop.



    The higher stop level (14.35) was reached during the day, which printed a low of 14.30. The probability calculation was a good way to avoid that too tight stop level. The EV pattern looks good now and the position is profitable, so there is no reason to sell.



    Since the market may be difficult today, I moved the portfolio to a more neutral stance. You can see that the portfolio risk is now 0.2% with one long and one short position and a 40% level of investment. Nothing to be worried about.



    Below is my watchlist of long/short trades for today. Note that position sizes on the long side should be lower than usual. This is because these leading stocks are still overextended and consequently safe stops are far from the proposed entry price.

    Short trades can be opened with a full position.